Meet the VPAP Pundit
Carrie Hamilton predicts election outcomes nearly every time voters head to the polls.
Most years, she and her husband have “some level of prediction, even if it's just winning bragging rights,” said Carrie, 26. “Usually, I’m way off.”
She lost a prediction competition with her friends and coworkers at Mayor Levar Stoney’s Better Way PAC, where she is the executive director. They had each made guesses for the outcomes of November’s General Assembly races.
“I kind of went with my heart,” said the lifelong Richmonder.
But for VPAP’s Pundit Contest, Carrie changed her strategy – and bested 639 contestants to win the crown.
“I’m going to put what I actually think will happen,” she recalled thinking, and reconsidered some of the guesses she had entered with friends.
One was in HD 57, where Carrie had hoped Democrat Susanna Gibson would beat Republican David Owens. She changed her answer in the pundit contest – and correctly predicted all 13 General Assembly races in the quiz.
She successfully navigated SD 24, where 71% of contestants thought Sen. Monty Mason (D-Williamsburg) would win in the Hampton Roads district that the VPAP Index ranked “Competitive”.
Carrie, who had heard warning signs from Democrats working in the district, predicted Republican Danny Diggs would win the redrawn district that had once leaned Democratic, but was now a toss-up.
“The district [Monty Mason] got thrown into was significantly less Democratic. I kind of heard that it was gonna be really tight and that a lot of people on the ground were worried about it.”
Carrie missed only one question: the Hanover County measure to directly elect the school board.
She – along with 81% of pundit hopefuls – predicted it would pass.
“Honestly, I didn't follow it very closely and didn't know what the different sides were doing all that much. But I kind of hoped that they would vote to pass it.”
At the end, Carrie and one other contestant had correctly predicted 16 out of 17 answers. She clinched the win with the first tiebreaker, which asked contestants to predict the number of seats each party would win in the State Senate.
Carrie correctly predicted that Democrats would win 21 seats and Republicans would win 19, a guess made “pretty confidently”.
She analyzed the competitive races and thought, “I think we're gonna get this. But then maybe we don't get that, but we get a different one.”
Carrie has worked in Democratic politics since she graduated from VCU in 2018. At an internship, she was introduced to VaNews and has followed VPAP ever since.
Aside from predicting election outcomes for fun, she enjoys Richmond Kickers soccer games and visiting Virginia State Parks.
Carrie’s win is proof that a good strategy can change everything. Just five months ago, the VPAP Pundit tried her hand at predicting the June primaries.
“I was not even close.”
Nov. 29, 2023
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