Meet the VPAP Pundit
Andrew Healey, 21, entered VPAP’s pundit contest from Dublin.
Winning was a result of strategy – and maybe a bit of Irish luck.
The incoming senior at James Madison University is completing an internship abroad this summer at a solicitor’s office – the Irish equivalent of an attorney. But he’s kept up with politics at home enough to best 501 other contestants to wear the pundit crown.
“I follow all types of politics very closely, but I definitely follow elections the most. I love elections, just seeing how different things have neighbors vote different ways,” said Andrew, who is from Manassas and hopes to go to law school after college.
The political Independent was one of 10 contestants to correctly predict the winners in all 10 of Virginia’s congressional primaries.
As a constituent in CD 10, Andrew felt confident favoring State Sen. Suhas Subramanyam to clinch the crowded Democratic primary there. He was the most popular choice, selected by 28% of pundit hopefuls to win the 12-person race.
“That really came down to the endorsement from Jennifer Wexton, the polling that had him and Dan Helmer kind of neck-and-neck, and then Helmer’s allegation that came out against him.”
In CD 5, the Republican race between Rep. Bob Good and State Sen. John McGuire turned into a nail-biter, but it didn’t stump pundit contestants. 68% predicted Sen. McGuire would win the race that may be headed for a recount, separated by less than 400 votes.
Though he anticipated the outcome, Andrew was still surprised by the result.
“I was actually shocked how close it is”, emphasizing that the results are still not finalized. “Literally every branch of the Republican Party had people coming against Good,” he said. “It just was like, wow… I just don’t see it going another way.”
Tied with the 10 finalists, Andrew considered the first tiebreaker: In the CD 10 Democratic primary, what percentage of the total vote will the winner receive?
Initially, he took a strategic approach.
“When there’s a big crowded primary with a lot of people that have elected positions,” he remembered, “I usually see a result like less than one-third of the vote is going to the winner.”
Then, perhaps embracing the luck of the Irish, he left it to chance.
“I just went with a choice a little bit under 30%. And I kind of did it just randomly.”
Andrew’s answer – 28.45% – was the closest to the actual percentage of 30.52%.
It’s hard to call it a lucky guess.
“I think it's a little bit easier, personally, analyzing partisan primaries versus the actual general elections.”
Plus, VPAP has helped him stay up to date on the political data he loves so much.
“I found [VPAP] just because I was interested in seeing election results,” but now tracks campaign finance data and sees which candidates are running in races across Virginia.
While in Dublin, he had a chance to visit the Guinness factory.
“There's a little tour, there’s a tasting, telling you how to taste it right.”
But nothing – not even a freshly-brewed Guinness – tastes as sweet as wearing the pundit crown.
July 5, 2024
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