Meet the VPAP Pundit
The VPAP Pundit has long dreamt of wearing the crown. He had consistency, entering the contest “just about every year.” But his confidence was not constant.
“I don’t always assign my name to it because I don't want to own it,” said the pundit. This year, the 43-year-old from Henrico submitted his predictions with his name attached.
It was Matt Bruning’s winning entry.
“Eventually, you know, the blind squirrel gets the nut,” said Matt, who does not attribute his win to a career spent in politics. The Executive Vice President for Government and Member Relations at the Virginia Bankers Association wasn't expecting to beat 674 others in VPAP’s annual election prediction contest.
“I would say that I'm a connoisseur of politics and this is what my day job is, so I'm pretty attuned to what's happening. But I've had my crystal ball out before and been completely wrong,” said Matt, a Republican who worked for Speaker Bill Howell and Governor Bob McDonnell. “I’ve been dead wrong before and I wouldn’t have been surprised if I was dead wrong this year.”
But he was spot on from the start, where he put himself ahead of 74% of contestants by correctly guessing the answer to Question #1: Which presidential candidate will win the electoral college?
Matt was part of the minority who predicted it would be Republican Donald Trump.
“I think it was the mood for change … It felt like a change election and Donald Trump is certainly a change from the current administration and Vice President Harris.”
At the end of the contest, there was a crowded field. Matt was one of 15 people who aced the winners of Virginia’s U.S. House seats, the Mayor of Richmond City, and the passage of the ballot measure to approve the proposed casino in Petersburg.
His win came from the first tiebreaker. The subject was the statewide referendum that would extend the tax exemption that is currently available to spouses of soldiers killed in action to spouses of soldiers who died in the line of duty.
Pundit hopefuls were asked to predict the percentages of ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ votes.
Matt’s answers were just 2.25% away from the actual percentages of 93.04% voting Yes and 6.96% voting No. (He guessed 90.79% and 9.21%.)
“I wish I could say I did statistical analysis on previous constitutional amendment results,” he said, but instead favored conventional wisdom. “I know that there's probably about a good 8-10% of people that are going to vote ‘no’ against anything.”
He’s been keen on politics since growing up in Cleveland, Ohio, which he left to study political science at the University of Richmond.
“Doesn't everyone grow up wanting to be a lobbyist, not an astronaut or a cowboy or a doctor?” he said with a laugh. “I knew I always liked politics and it's been good to me so far.”
Matt’s career even brought him to volunteer with VPAP from 2012 to 2014 as a member of the VPAP Partners board, a group of young government affairs professionals who help fundraise for the annual “Lighten Up” luncheon.
VPAP has been “an invaluable resource”, especially in his work over 14 years at the Virginia Bankers Association.
“I try to spread the gospel of VPAP to our membership and anybody else, because what you do makes my job easier and certainly is a benefit to the entire public.”
Outside of work, the father of two girls, ages 10 and 12, can be found at their swim meets or soccer games, or enjoying a happy hour with his wife.
After years of entering the contest, Matt begins his reign as the VPAP Pundit.
“It's a high honor to be bestowed upon me.”
Nov. 19, 2024
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