Strong GOP Headwinds

The challenge for Republican legislative candidates this November extended beyond the suburbs. A precinct-analysis shows that in rural areas most GOP candidates drew a lower percentage of the vote than their party candidates had in 2015, the last year all General Assembly seats were on the ballot.

Source: Virginia Department of Elections

Methodology: VPAP classified precincts as "rural," "suburban" or "urban" based on voter density. To ensure proper sample sizes, a district was listed for a population density only if it had five (5) or more precincts that fit the criteria.

Note: Analysis is limited to those legislative districts in which both major parties fielded candidates in November 2015 and November 2019. In addition, the analysis considered only those precincts that had not changed during that time. In the 25 House districts whose boundaries were redrawn in 2019, we used only those precincts that the district had in common in 2015 and 2019.

Nov. 18, 2019