Assembly Headed for Elevated Turnover?

Virginia's first "incumbent-blind" redistricting last year has generated speculation that November 2023 elections -- the first that will take place in the new districts -- could lead to elevated turnover. This visual provides a historic look at legislative turnover, or the number of non-incumbents who won in each general election dating to 1971.

Methodology: In the past, incumbent legislators had the prerogative to draw new district boundaries after each national Census. This power gave incumbents, particularly those from the political party in power, the ability to craft maps designed to make their re-election more likely. But a new voter-approved redistricting process gave legislators less sway. In the end, after a bipartisan commission that included citizen members was unable to reach an agreement, the task fell to the Supreme Court of Virginia. The court hired two experts, who in December 2021 drew the districts without any knowledge of where the 140 incumbents' homes were located. The result was an "incumbent blind" map that paired nearly half of sitting legislators in the same district with one or more colleagues. This is expected to lead to unusual contests that pit two sitting legislators against each other, one factor next year that could lead to fewer incumbents returning to the General Assembly in 2024.

Sources: VPAP data for the period of 1997-2021; Department of Elections historic archive of election results; Database of House members created and maintained by the House Clerk's Office.