Southwest Virginia to Lose Another House Seat
Shrinking population in Southwest Virginia over the last decade will likely cause the region to lose the equivalent of one seat in the House of Delegates. Representation -- and political power -- will shift to fast-growing Northern Virginia, which should gain nearly two House seats.
Population changes over the last decade will lead to changes in representation when new House of Delegates districts are drawn this year. Preliminary* population numbers in Virginia's 11 congressional districts can be used to estimate the change per region in the number of House of Delegates seats (which each will contain about 86,000 people).
| Congressional District | 2020 Population* | Change from 2010 | Difference from Ideal Population** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 827,606 | +13.8% | +42,934 |
| 2 | 750,830 | +3.2% | -33,842 |
| 3 | 756,761 | +4.0% | -27,911 |
| 4 | 789,815 | +8.6% | +5,143 |
| 5 | 739,211 | +1.6% | -45,461 |
| 6 | 763,401 | +5.0% | -21,271 |
| 7 | 817,419 | +12.4% | +32,747 |
| 8 | 798,257 | +9.7% | +13,585 |
| 9 | 696,755 | -4.2% | -87,917 |
| 10 | 885,422 | +21.7% | +100,750 |
| 11 | 805,916 | +10.8% | +21,244 |
| Virginia | 8,631,393 | +7.9% |
*2020 Population: The Census counts incarcerated people at the facility where they are held. Under a new state law, the Redistricting Commission will reassign incarcerated persons to their last known place of residence, if possible. The adjusted population numbers are expected to be available August 26.
**Ideal population: The number of people per legislative district if each district had identical population.
US Congressional Districts: 784,672 = 8,631,393 (Virginia population) / 11 (number of Congressional Districts)
State Senate Districts: 215,785 = 8,631,393 (Virginia population) / 40 (number of State Senators)
House of Delegates Districts: 86,314 = 8,631,393 (Virginia population) / 100 (number of Delegates)
Methodology: VPAP compared the actual population of Congressional Districts in 2020 to the ideal population, and used the difference between those numbers to estimate the change in House of Delegates Districts.
Source: United States Census Bureau, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.